Blog

What makes a toss up constituency?
– Sr. Analyst. 15-July-2017

Karnataka, like any other state in India has constituencies that believe in a photo finish. Kumta, a sleepy constituency in Karnataka (170,000 electorate), takes the cake in election results. Janta Dal (Secular) candidate in 2008 won the election by a razor thin margin of only 20 votes. Kumta’s election results have been decided since 1994 with a margin of less than 5% baring 1999. Indian National Congress has won this constituency three times in last 5 elections so far. However, its margins have dwindled from robust 13.3% in 1999 to 0.3% in 2013 elections. Given the history and the trend, Kumta is going to be a toss up constituency in next elections in 2018. The factors that may impact the constituency status are several socio economic parameters, current voter perception and future candidate’s image. This is neither a hunch nor we are in the business of prediction. We keep track of data and bring out meaningful insights.